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- 📈 Resilient Trader Trade Idea: The High-Growth Caffeinated Play on Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
📈 Resilient Trader Trade Idea: The High-Growth Caffeinated Play on Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB)
Resilient Trader
November 12, 2025
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Regular people are starting to trade like institutional traders, and they’re making a living doing it. But not everyone is successful with their trades. There is a right way and a wrong way. I’m here to help you come up with vetted trade ideas so you actually make money off your trading.
Resilient Trader is where smart traders come for vetted ideas.
Every week, we cut through the noise and surface opportunities that institutions are already eyeing - but with strategies tailored for retail traders.
Today’s setup? A recent IPO in the restaurant space that’s brewing up some serious growth.
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Top forecasters are already positioning.
🔍 Trade Thesis: BRCB is Brewing Up Explosive Growth
Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB), a recent IPO in the restaurant space, is posting strong growth metrics that are hard to ignore. The stock recently dipped in pre-market trading after a strong earnings report - creating a compelling entry point for savvy investors.
Behind the scenes:
📈 Revenue accelerating: Up 24% year-over-year, with strong guidance for 20%+ growth ahead.
☕ Margins expanding: Store-level profit margins up 150 bps, showing solid operational leverage.
🚀 Aggressive unit growth: On track for 20% new store growth, with new openings outperforming expectations.
📊 The Fundamentals Are Strong
💰 Revenue: $51.5M in Q3, up 24.2% YoY, with full-year guidance of $199-200M.
📐 Comparable Sales: +10.8% in Q3, with high-single-digit growth expected for the year.
💎 Store-Level Margin: 29.6%, up 150 basis points from last year.
🚀 Unit Growth: 11 new stores opened in Q3, 30 expected for full year (20% growth).
⚖️ Balance Sheet: $32.6M cash, plus an undrawn $25M credit facility.
📐 Valuation Is Attractive for a High-Growth Story
BRCB is priced for growth, but the recent pullback makes it compelling:
⚖️ EV/Sales: 3.18x - reasonable for a company growing revenue 20%+.
🏷️ Price/Sales: 2.07x - a discount to many high-growth peers.
🎯 Analyst Targets: Consensus $28+, with high-end estimates of $32 (23-39% upside).
🧭 Technicals Signal a Buying Opportunity
❌ Oversold conditions: RSI and Stochastics both oversold, signaling a likely bounce.
❌ Post-earnings dip: Trading below recent highs despite strong results.
✅ Support at IPO price: Solid support near $20.
✅ Current price: $25.00
🎯 Targets:
Initial: $28
Intermediate: $32
Long Term $40
💥 Trade of the Week: Synthetic Long for Leveraged Upside
We’re combining a stock purchase with a defined-risk options strategy to maximize upside.
🟢 Trade Setup
Buy $BRCB ( ▲ 2.18% ) at $25 or better
🛡️ Options Play
Buy the February 20th $30 Call for $1.80
Sell the February 20th $20 Put for $1.65
🕹️ Net Debit: $0.15
📈 Risk-Reward
Max Risk: $20.15/share (if stock goes to $0)
Max Reward: Unlimited
Breakeven: $30.15
Risk-Reward Ratio: Asymmetric - limited downside, unlimited upside
🛑 Risk Management Tip
Set a stop-loss at $19.50 to cap downside risk while leaving room for upside follow-through.
🚀 Catalysts on the Horizon
Q4 Earnings (Early 2026): Expect continued growth and margin expansion.
2026 Guidance: Another year of 20%+ revenue and unit growth likely.
Analyst Upgrades: More coverage and new Buy ratings ahead.
Holiday Season: Coffee demand surges into year-end.
🧠 Final Thoughts
BRCB is a high-growth name the market has temporarily overlooked. The combination of accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and rapid unit growth makes this a compelling setup at current levels.
✅ Buy BRCB at $25.00
💸 Buy the Feb 20th $30/$20 Synthetic Long for a net debit of $0.15
We’ll be watching this one closely.
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Disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional.