🌿 Resilient Trader Trade Idea: The Cannabis Breakout with TOKE ETF

Resilient Trader is where smart traders come for vetted ideas.

Every week, we cut through the noise and surface opportunities that institutions are already eyeing, with strategies tailored for retail traders. Today’s setup: a forgotten sector showing signs of life, with a nimble ETF positioned to ride the wave.

We’ll cover:

• Why the Cambria Cannabis ETF (TOKE) is a buy at current levels

• How to leverage the move with a defined-risk call option

🔍 Trade Thesis: Cannabis is waking up-and TOKE is the smart, low-cost vehicle

After a long bear market, credible catalysts are stacking up:

🚨 Policy Tailwind: President Trump publicly floated the idea of Medicare coverage for CBD, in a video produced with the Commonwealth Project. It’s not policy yet, but it’s a meaningful signal that pushed CBD/cannabis sentiment and could accelerate reform chatter.

📈 Retail Options Energy: 0DTE options remain a powerful force in U.S. indices; recent analysis estimates retail accounts for 50-60% of SPX 0DTE flow. That liquidity can amplify moves when a theme catches.

🌎 Cleaner Portfolio Construction: TOKE runs active, global cannabis exposure with a net expense ratio of 0.43%, materially below MSOS at 0.77%. A smaller AUM base ($16-17M) keeps it nimble.

💎 What’s inside TOKE (and why we care)

💰 Concentrated Exposure: About two dozen holdings as of late September, focusing on operators and swaps tied to sector leaders.

📈 Quality Names Represented: Swaps and positions referencing Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF) and Grown Rogue (GRUSF) appear among top exposures; recent reports show GTI Q2 revenue ≈ $293M (+5% YoY) and Grown Rogue positive net income. Glass House Brands (GLASF) posted solid Q2 growth across retail and CPG.

📊 Price, Range, and Tape

⚖️ Recent price: $6.46 (Sep 30 close).

🏷️ 52-week range: $3.86–$6.92; price is pressing the top of the range.

📈 Volume: Recent sessions have traded well above the 3-month average, a positive momentum tell.

🧠 Valuation & Structure Edge

✅ Cost advantage: TOKE 0.43% vs MSOS 0.77% means less fee drag.

✅ Size advantage: With $17M AUM, TOKE can adjust faster than larger peers when headlines hit.

✅ Global remit: TOKE isn’t boxed into U.S. names only, helping diffuse single-jurisdiction risk. (See Cambria fact sheet strategy).

🎯 Trade Plan

🟢 Core equity buy:

• Buy $TOKE ( ▼ 1.39% ) at current levels (around $6.40–$6.60 as of Sep 30).

🛡️ Options kicker (defined risk):

• Buy the April 17, 2026 $7 Call for about $0.55 per contract (reference your broker’s mid).

  • Max risk: $0.55 (premium)

  • Breakeven: $7.55 at expiration

  • Upside: Open-ended if the sector re-rates

🛑 Risk Management

For equity, use a stop near the most recent swing low or your 50-day MA as a trailing reference, so you stay in trend while protecting capital.

🚀 Catalysts to watch

1. Rescheduling / federal signals: Any DEA or White House movement can reprice the group quickly.

2. Earnings: Continued execution from holdings like GTI, Glass House, Grown Rogue strengthens the fundamental leg.

3. Flows: Watch AUM creep and sustained volume > 3-mo average for confirmation.

4. Breakout level: A clean push above $6.92 opens room toward $8 and then $10 on a measured move.

⁉️ Quick FAQ

Why TOKE over MSOS?

Lower net fee, global flexibility, and smaller size for faster repositioning. MSOS remains a solid U.S.-focused vehicle but at a higher expense ratio.

What if Volatility Spikes?

That’s why we pair stock with a call. Your equity rides the trend, and your call adds convexity if policy headlines hit.

🧠 Final Take

✅ Buy TOKE around current levels
💸 Buy Apr 17, 2026 $7 Calls around $0.55 for upside leverage

We’ll keep an eye on policy headlines, volume, and that $6.92 breakout.

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- The Resilient Trader

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