Resilient Trader is Where Smart Traders Come for Vetted Ideas.

Every week, we cut through the noise and surface opportunities that institutions are already eyeing-but with strategies tailored for retail traders. Today's setup? A cruise line stock riding a wave of recovery and booking momentum.

🔍 Trade Thesis: Carnival (CCL) - Full Steam Ahead

I wouldn't say we're early on this one, but we believe CCL is about ready to break out of a 5 year range. Carnival (CCL) crushed FQ1'25 expectations with strong Total Net Yield growth and last-minute bookings. While full-year guidance was cautious, historical trends suggest we could see upward revisions by the June earnings release. Wave Season data supports this view and broader strength across the cruise industry.

Key tailwinds include:

📈 Post-pandemic demand surge for cruises

💵 Improving operational efficiencies and margins

🛢️ Lower oil prices easing cost pressures

📊 Analysts project 31.7% EPS growth in 2025 and 15.8% in 2026

Carnival is regaining its position as an industry leader, with the second largest market share behind Royal Caribbean, a healthy pipeline of new ships, and improving cash flows.

📊 The Fundamentals Are Strengthening

💵 Revenue Growth: From $12B in 2021 to over $25B TTM

💲 EPS: Swinging from -$5.16 in 2021 to $1.61 TTM

📉 Gross Margin: Now at 38.25%, a dramatic improvement from negative margins just 2 years ago

🧾 Cash Flow: Operating cash flow has turned positive and strong at $5B+

Analyst sentiment remains bullish. With price targets ranging up to $34, CCL has 25%+ upside potential from current levels ($23.59). EPS estimate beats and upward revisions are becoming the norm.

🧭 Technicals Confirm the Setup

✅ 7/10 technical rating

📈 Long-term uptrend remains intact

📉 Short/medium-term: Neutral (possible consolidation before breakout)

🔄 RSI and MACD indicators turning bullish

💡 Key support: $21.40–$22.07

🚧 Resistance: $24.60

CCL is trading mid-range in its 52-week channel, offering a solid entry before a potential breakout.

🛳️ Cruise Industry Leadership

Carnival leads the industry with 41% market share by revenue as of Q1 2025. With a diversified fleet and broad customer reach, it holds strategic advantages over peers like Royal Caribbean (27%) and Norwegian (15%).

Its dominant scale enables better pricing, more route flexibility, and greater operational resilience.

📈 Valuation: Still Undervalued

Our internal model suggests an intrinsic value of $32.55, based on a forward P/E of 15x 2026 projected EPS of $2.17. That implies a 39.8% upside from current levels.

CCL is trading below fair value, with strong tailwinds and improved profitability-a classic setup for value and growth investors alike.

💥 Trade of the Week: Short Put for Income or Entry

Stock Recommendation: BUY $CCL ( ▲ 1.42% ) at current levels ($23.59) as of 6/19 close

Options Recommendation:

✅ Sell the July 25 $22 Put for $0.78

This is a defined-risk trade ideal for investors looking to generate income OR pick up CCL shares at a discount.

Payoff Profile (per contract):

📈 Max Profit: $78 if CCL stays at or above $22
📉 Max Loss: $2072 if CCL goes to $0 (highly unlikely)
💰 Breakeven: $20.72

If assigned, you effectively buy shares at $21.22 -a 10.04% discount from the current market price.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Carnival is charting a profitable course. With strong industry momentum, earnings beats, improving financials, and bullish analyst sentiment, this is one of the clearest long opportunities on our radar.

✅ BUY the stock
✅ SELL puts to generate income or get in lower

This is one to watch closely.

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Stay Liquid, my friends.
- The Resilient Trader