📈 Resilient Trader Trade Idea: The Comeback Play on Nike (NKE)

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Every week, we cut through the noise and surface opportunities that institutions are already eyeing, paired with strategies tailored for retail traders.

Today’s setup? A global athletic giant emerging from its toughest quarter with momentum and a clear path forward.

🚀 Trade Thesis: Nike (NKE) Is Lacing Up for a Powerful Comeback

Nike just delivered what management called its “worst quarter,” and that’s precisely why we’re paying attention. When a dominant brand hits rock bottom and shows signs of a turnaround, smart traders look for an opportunity.

Behind the scenes:

✅ Earnings Beat: EPS $0.14 vs. $0.13 expected; Revenue $11.1B vs. $10.7B

📈 Analyst Upgrades: JP Morgan (Neutral → Overweight), Argus Research (Hold → Buy)

🔄 Turnaround Strategy: CEO Elliott Hill’s “Win Now” plan gaining traction

💪 Market Share: Nike holds 24.25% vs. Adidas at 17.54%

📊 Fundamentals Are Reversing

Why we like this setup:

💰 Q4 2025: Beat on both revenue and EPS despite a tough macro backdrop

📈 Earnings Surprise Streak: 4 consecutive beats (13.5%, 94.9%, 23.3%, 34.9%)

🏆 Category Leader: $51B in revenue-9x larger than Under Armour’s $5.7B

🌍 Footwear Dominance: 35.01% global athletic footwear share (up from ~17%)

💎 5-Year Profit Stack: $20B for Nike vs. $6.7B for Adidas

💸 Valuation Offers a Compelling Entry

📉 Current Price: $74.94

🎯 Analyst Target: Median $77.20 (range: $38–$120)

📈 EPS Growth Ahead: Fiscal 2027 EPS expected at $2.49 (vs. $1.70 today)

💵 Revenue Rebound: $48.3B projected for 2027 (+5.4% growth)

📈 Technicals Look Bullish

✅ Support Holding: Trading 20.3% above the 50-day moving average

📊 Barchart Trend Seeker: BUY signal

🧱 Support Zones: $73.87 and $73.04

🚀 Breakout Watch: Resistance at $75.96 and $77.22-$78.05

🎯 Current Price: $74.94-ideal entry near support

💥 Trade of the Week: NKE Stock + Income Strategy

Two ways to win: capital gains if it rises, income if it stalls, cheaper shares if it dips.

🟢 Primary Position:

Buy Nike (NKE) stock at $74.94(as of yesterdays close)

💰 Income Generation Strategy:

Sell Sept 5, 2025 $71 Puts for $1.18

• Strike: $71 (4.8% below current price)

• Premium: $1.18 per share ($118 per contract)

• Expiration: September 5, 2025

• Delta: ~30

Strategy Outcomes:

• NKE > $71 → Keep full premium ($118 = 1.6% in ~5 weeks)

• NKE < $71 → Assigned at $69.82 effective cost (71 - 1.18)

• Annualized return: ~16% if repeated monthly (keep selling puts monthly until stock hits $93.00)

🔭 Catalysts to Watch

1. Q1 2026 Earnings – Update on turnaround progress

2. Tariff Mitigation – $1B cost-reduction plan in motion

3. Supply Chain Shifts – Reducing China exposure from 16% to single digits

4. Fall Analyst Day – Strategic roadmap & long-term guidance

5. Holiday Season Sales – Major test for brand momentum

🛡️ Risk Management Plan

Stock Position:

• Stop Loss: $71 (aligns with put strike)

• Profit Target: $82 (first major resistance), then $93 and then $120.

Put Strategy:

• Roll If Challenged: Roll down/out for more credit

• Assignment OK: Comfortable owning more shares at $69.82

🧠 Final Thoughts

Nike is your classic “buy when there’s blood in the streets” opportunity.

It just posted its worst quarter and still beat expectations. The “Win Now” turnaround is underway. From analyst upgrades and market dominance to strong earnings revisions and bullish technicals-this setup has multiple ways to win.

✅ Buy $NKE ( ▲ 1.55% )  stock at $74.94
💸 Sell Sept 5th $71 Puts for $1.18

We’ll be tracking this closely.

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Stay Liquid, my friends.
- The Resilient Trader