Regular people are starting to trade like institutional traders - and they're making a living doing it. But not everyone is successful with their trades. There is a right way and a wrong way. I'm here to help you come up with vetted trade ideas so you actually make money off your trading.
Resilient Trader is where smart traders come for vetted ideas.
Every week, we cut through the noise and surface opportunities that institutions are already eyeing, but with strategies tailored for retail traders. Today's setup? Washington is engineering a weaker dollar, and while every headline chases gold, a different metal has returned nearly three times as much.
We’ll cover:
Why $COPX is a Buy at $95.00 or better
How to get long with defined risk using one December call spread
The risk inside this fund that nobody is talking about
🔍 Trade Thesis: Gold Got the Headlines, Copper Got the Returns
Here is a number that should stop you. Over the past twelve months, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) returned 36.1%. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) returned 96.1%.
Same driver. Nearly three times the return. And almost nobody is talking about it.
The driver is dollar debasement. The Treasury has committed to at least doubling its buyback of longer-dated debt starting next month, designed to hold long-end yields down. The dollar index fell to 98.55 on August 22, its weakest since May, and is off 2.5% in a month. When you deliberately suppress the price of money, hard assets reprice higher. Gold is the obvious expression. Copper is the one the market keeps filing under "industrial."
That filing error is the opportunity. Copper is a debasement asset and the physical bottleneck of electrification, grid buildout and AI data centers. It traded at $6.63 per pound this morning, within 2% of the all-time COMEX record of $6.77 set August 7. The miners add operating leverage: when the metal rises and the cost of pulling it out of the ground does not, margins expand faster than the price.
$COPX gives us the whole complex in one trade: 45 global miners, $8.6 billion in assets, no single-company blowup risk.
Now the honest bear case. This fund is extended. RSI sits at 69.8 after a 21.4% month, and COPX is 5.4% below its 52-week high. We are buying strength, not a washout, and strength can correct hard. Roughly 16% of the fund sits in Canadian miners (Hudbay, First Quantum, Teck) precisely as Canada prepares retaliatory tariffs on September 8. That is a real, dated risk, and we size for it.
📊 Overview and Key Metrics
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Price | $94.73 |
52-Week Range | $48.10 to $99.99 |
1-Year Return | +96.1% |
Month / Year to Date | +21.4% / +31.7% |
Assets Under Management | $8.60B |
Holdings | 45 global copper miners |
Expense Ratio | 0.65% |
RSI (14) | 69.8 |
Top 3 Holdings | Hudbay 5.7%, First Quantum 5.3%, Teck 5.2% |
📡 Market Sentiment and Fundamental Drivers
The macro is doing the heavy lifting here, and it has held for three straight sessions of institutional commentary rather than one morning's headline.
💵 A deliberately weaker dollar: Most major banks now see the dollar index ending 2026 in the mid-90s, down from nearly 99.9 in early August.
⚡ Reflation is broad, not narrow: Bullish trend is intact in effectively every commodity other than natural gas. This is a regime, not a single-commodity squeeze.
🔌 Structural demand: Grid upgrades, electrification and AI data centers all require copper, and none of it is rate-sensitive the way housing is.
⛏️ Supply cannot respond: New copper mines take the better part of a decade. Record prices cannot conjure near-term supply, so the margin lands with existing producers.
📐 Technical Analysis: A Breakout That Held Instead of Faded
COPX broke out to new highs late last week, then did the most useful thing a breakout can do. It went sideways for two sessions instead of giving the move back.
Moving Averages:
✅ Price is 9.2% above the 20-day near $86.55
✅ Price is 15.9% above the 50-day near $81.58
✅ Price is 18.9% above the 200-day near $79.50
✅ All three averages are rising and stacked in bullish order
🗝️ Key Levels:
Resistance: $99.99, the 52-week high, with the round number at $100 right behind it
Support: $86.55 at the 20-day, then $81.58 at the 50-day
Risk line: $86
The setup: A trend continuation trade, not a bottom fish. Consolidating above the breakout is constructive, but RSI near 70 means we should not demand an immediate move. The structure below is built so we do not have to.
🧠 SWOT and Who Should Take This Trade
Strengths
Best-corroborated macro theme on the board right now
Diversified across 45 miners, so no single-name blowup risk
Operating leverage to a metal within 2% of a record high
Weaknesses
RSI 69.8 after a 21.4% month is a late entry
Option volume is thin even though open interest is deep
Opportunities
September Fed on the 15th and 16th with a fresh dot plot
A clean break above $100 opens clear air
Threats
Canadian tariffs on September 8 hit roughly 16% of the fund
A hawkish Fed surprise would lift the dollar and hit the complex
Who should take this trade: Traders who want debasement exposure with defined risk and accept that the entry is extended. Not for anyone who needs it to work right away.
🟢 Trade Setup
Buy $COPX ( ▼ 0.81% ) at $95.00 or better
🛡️ Options Play
Buy the Dec. 18, 2026 $90 Call for $13.10
Sell the Dec. 18, 2026 $105 Call for $6.10
Net debit: $7.00 per share, or $700 per contract
📉 Risk-Reward Breakdown - December 90/105 Call Spread
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Net Debit | $700 per contract |
Max Value at Expiration | $1,500 per contract |
Max Gain | $800 per contract |
Max Loss | $700 per contract |
Breakeven | $97.00 (+2.4%) |
Return on Risk | 114% |
Days to Expiration | 115 |
💰 Payoff Table
COPX at Dec. 18 | Spread Value | Profit / Loss | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
$85.00 | $0 | -$700 | -100% |
$90.00 | $0 | -$700 | -100% |
$94.73 | $473 | -$227 | -32% (Today) |
$97.00 | $700 | $0 | 0% (Breakeven) |
$100.00 | $1,000 | +$300 | +43% |
$105.00 | $1,500 | +$800 | +114% (Max Gain) |
$110.00 | $1,500 | +$800 | +114% |
$115.00 | $1,500 | +$800 | +114% |
How it works: We buy the $90 call, already in the money, and sell the $105 call against it to cut the cost nearly in half. Because the long strike sits below today's price, the position holds real intrinsic value from day one and does not depend on a fast move. Breakeven is just 2.4% above spot, and December expiration captures the September Fed and the fourth quarter without running deep into the potential Quad 4 setup institutional models flag for the first half of 2027.
(Quotes 15-min delayed as of 10:08 AM ET, August 25, 2026 - verify with live brokerage prices. Open interest is deep at 1,754 contracts on the $90 strike and 117 on the $105, but daily volume is light, so use limit orders.)
🛑 Risk Management Tip
Use $86 as your hard risk line on the shares, just under the 20-day. A decisive close below that breaks the consolidation and says the reflation trade is unwinding. The call spread is already defined risk: the most you can lose is the $700 debit. Size the position so a total loss costs no more than 1% to 2% of your account.
🚀 Catalysts to Watch
Keep your eyes on:
Jackson Hole Symposium - August 27 and 28. A dovish signal pressures the dollar and lifts the hard-asset complex.
Core PCE - August 26. A cooler print supports the September cut narrative.
Canadian Retaliatory Tariffs - September 8. The key risk date, with roughly 16% of COPX in Canadian producers.
September FOMC - September 15 and 16, decision and fresh dot plot on the 16th at 2:00 PM ET.
Treasury Buyback Expansion - Starting next month, the Treasury at least doubles its buyback of long-dated debt, the mechanical driver behind the softer dollar.
Want to learn how to build trades like this yourself? Options Trading in 21 Days
🧠 Final Thoughts
$COPX is what happens when a crowded story leaves money on the table right next door. Everyone can tell you gold is going up. Almost nobody can tell you the copper miners nearly tripled gold's return on the exact same debasement thesis.
We are not pretending the entry is perfect. RSI near 70 after a 21% month is late, and we said so plainly. What we did instead is pick a structure that does not punish us for it: an in-the-money call spread with a 2.4% breakeven and a hard $700 ceiling on the downside.
The regime is the thesis. As long as the dollar is deliberately devalued and commodities stay in bullish trend, the miners are where the torque is.
✅ Buy COPX at $95.00 or better
💸 Buy the Dec. 18, 2026 $90/$105 Call Spread for a $7.00 net debit
We'll be watching this one closely.
Want more trade ideas like this - plus weekly options plays and breakdowns?
👉 Join the Paid Resilient Trader Newsletter
For more in-depth trading strategies and market insights, upgrade to the paid version of our newsletter.
Our paid newsletter gives you:
Weekly stock + options trade ideas
Market commentary and macro insights
Easy-to-follow setups with defined risk
Stay Liquid, my friends
- The Resilient Trader
Disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional.
