📈 Resilient Trader Trade Idea: The High-Growth Caffeinated Play on Dutch Bros (BROS)

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Resilient Trader is where smart traders come for vetted ideas.

Every week, we cut through the noise and surface opportunities that institutions are already eyeing - but with strategies tailored for retail traders. Today’s setup? A high-growth coffee chain that’s just getting started.

We’ll cover:

• Why Dutch Bros is a Buy at current levels

• How to take advantage with a defined-risk call spread

🔍 Trade Thesis: BROS is Brewing a Perfect Storm for Growth

Dutch Bros (BROS) is a high-octane growth story that’s firing on all cylinders. While the broader market is fixated on legacy coffee giants. Umm well to be fair we also just recommended Starbucks on Christmas eve but hey it’s up over 14% since. 👏 BROS is quietly capturing market share, building a cult-like following, and laying the groundwork for explosive long-term growth. So here is another coffee stock…..

Behind the scenes:

🚀 Digital Dominance: A redesigned app and a wildly successful loyalty program are driving accelerating traffic and engagement. The Dutch Rewards program now accounts for 72% of all transactions.

📈 Blistering Foot Traffic: While competitors are seeing traffic stall, Dutch Bros visits surged 13.8% YoY in Q2 2025, driven by both new stores and higher visits per location.

☕ Aggressive Expansion: Management has a clear line of sight to nearly doubling its store count, targeting 2,029 stores by 2029. Recent acquisitions in the Carolinas show they are executing on this plan.

📊 The Fundamentals Are Accelerating

Let’s break it down:

💰 Revenue: TTM revenue of $1.54B, with consistent 25%+ YoY growth. Analysts expect revenue to hit $2.03B in 2026.

📈 Comparable Sales: A stunning 5.7% system-wide same-store sales growth in Q3 2025, driven by a 4.7% increase in transactions. This is happening while many competitors are seeing traffic decline.

💸 Profitability: The company has reached a key inflection point, achieving positive and growing free cash flow for the first time in 2024. TTM free cash flow now stands at a healthy $65.4M.

☕ Unit Economics: New shops are ramping up faster than ever, with systemwide Average Unit Volumes (AUVs) at record highs.

📐 Valuation: Premium Price for Premium Growth

BROS is priced for growth, and for good reason:

⚖️ Forward P/E: Trading at 69x 2026 earnings. While high, this is a significant compression from its trailing P/E of 125x, reflecting expected earnings growth of over 32%.

📈 EV/Sales: At 4.9x TTM sales, the valuation is rich, but justified by the 25%+ revenue growth rate, which significantly outpaces peers like Starbucks.

🚀 Growth vs. Peers: BROS is in a class of its own. While Starbucks (SBUX) struggles with flat growth, BROS is rapidly expanding its footprint and taking share. The growth story is more comparable to a younger Chipotle (CMG) than a mature coffee giant.

🧭 Technicals Signal a Buying Opportunity

✅ Support Zone: The stock is currently trading around the $60 level, which has acted as a strong support zone.

✅ Moving Averages: BROS is trading above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, a bullish sign. A move above the 200-day MA at $61.75 would confirm the next leg up.

✅ Consolidation: The stock has been consolidating in a range, building a strong base for a breakout.

💰 Current price: $62.00

🎯 Targets: $82 (short-term), $115 (longer-term)

💥 Trade of the Week: Defined-Risk Call Spread

We’re combining a long equity position with a defined-risk options trade for leveraged upside.

🟢 Trade Setup

• Buy $BROS ( ▼ 5.36% ) at $62.00

🛡️ Options Play

Buy the July 17th 2026 $72.50/$95 Call Spread for a $4.40 debit

• Buy July 17th 2026 $72.50 Call: $5.8

• Sell July 17th 2026 $95 Call: $1.40

• Net debit: $4.34

📈 Risk-Reward

• Max Risk: $4.40

• Max Reward: $18.10

• Breakeven: $76.9

• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:4.8

🛑 Risk Management Tip

Set a stop-loss on the stock position at $55 to manage downside risk while allowing room for the bullish thesis to play out.

🚀 Catalysts on the Horizon

Keep your eyes on:

1. Upcoming Earnings (Q4 2025) - Continued transaction growth and margin expansion.

2. Store Opening Announcements - Updates on the 2026 expansion plan of ~175 new stores.

3. Analyst Upgrades - As the company continues to execute, expect price targets to rise.

4. Technical Breakout - A move above the $62 resistance level could trigger accelerated buying.

🧠 Final Thoughts

BROS is a rare find: a high-growth consumer brand with a massive runway for expansion, accelerating fundamentals, and a loyal customer base. The company is successfully navigating a challenging environment for restaurants, proving the resilience of its model.

The premium valuation is a testament to the market’s confidence in the long-term story. At current levels, we believe the risk-reward is highly favorable for a long position.

✅ Buy BROS at $62.00
💸 Buy the July 17th 2026 $72.50/$95 Call Spread for $4.40

We'll be watching this one closely.

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