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🧠 This Week’s Trade: Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)
🏷️ Ticker: HIMS
💰 Price at Entry: $49.44
📅 Catalyst Date: Earnings August 4, 2025
Wall Street is piling on with over 25% of HIMS’s float sold short. But they’re missing the bigger picture: a wildly profitable, cash-rich subscription healthcare business that continues to beat earnings expectations.
With the next earnings report due August 4 and a quarter of the float shorted, we believe HIMS could be one of the biggest short squeeze plays of 2025.
🔍 Trade Thesis: Three Bullish Forces Converging
💣 1. Short Squeeze Setup
Short Interest: ~25% of float (~62M shares)
Days to Cover: 1.4
Catalyst: Q2 earnings on August 4
Risk to Shorts: Low float, strong fundamentals, and prior earnings beats increase the odds of a panic squeeze
This isn’t just a crowded short it’s a scenario where even a small catalyst could spark a move.
💸 2. Consistent Earnings Beats
HIMS doesn’t just meet expectations, it tends to crush them. Meaning they do a great job at managing Wall Street analyst expectations.
Q1 2025: EPS 0.28 vs. 0.23 (+24%)
Q4 2024: EPS 0.28 vs. 0.27
Q3 2024: EPS 0.29 vs. 0.10 (+187%)
Q2 2024: EPS 0.23 vs. 0.18 (+29%)
Wall Street Expects: EPS $0.22 on $550M revenue
Our View: Another beat is incoming based on strong traffic and subscription momentum
🌐 3. Telehealth Disruption
HIMS is building a monopoly on dignity in healthcare, owning the most awkward but profitable niches:
Erectile dysfunction
Hair loss
Mental health
Birth control
Weight management & more
This is a direct-to-consumer healthcare model that avoids insurance, wait times, and stigma and it’s working.
📊 Fundamentals: From Startup to Subscription Juggernaut
💰 TTM Revenue: $1.78B (+86% YoY)
📈 Q1 2025 Revenue: $586M (+111% YoY)
🧬 TTM Net Income: $164.4M
⚖️ Free Cash Flow: $247.9M
🏷️ Cash Position: $322M
📊 Debt: Just $63M
This is no longer a startup story HIMS is a profitable subscription engine.
📈 Technical Setup
💲 Current Price: $49.44
↔️ 52-Week Range: $13.47 – $72.98
🎯 Target Range: $65–$100+
🎢 Momentum: Building into earnings
🎙️ Volume: Elevated on up days, bullish trend intact
🥊 Competitive Edge
vs. Teladoc (TDOC)
HIMS: +158% past year | Direct-to-consumer
TDOC: -44% past year | Enterprise-heavy model
vs. Roman (Ro)
HIMS offers broader care, lower pricing, and more scale
vs. Amazon One Medical
HIMS owns patient trust in sensitive categories, and that moat is wide
💥 Trade of the Week:
✅ Buy HIMS Stock at $49.44
🎯 Profit Targets:
Near-Term: $65–75
3–6 Months: $80-90
Long-Term: $100+
Stop Loss: $42
🛡️ Options Strategy: The Earnings Explosion Play
📆 (For Aggressive Options Trading Accounts Only)
✅ SELL November 21st $44 Put for $7.95
✅ BUY November 21st $60 Call for $8.25 • Net Debit: $0.30
🎲 Scenarios:
Max Gain: Unlimited above $60.30
Breakeven Call: $60.30 ($60 + $0.30 net debit)
Breakeven Put: $44.30 ($44 + $0.30 net debit)
Max Risk: Assigned at $44 + $0.30 = $44.30 effective cost
This is a cheap lottery ticket on the ultimate short squeeze setup.
🔥 Catalyst Watch
August 4 - Q2 Earnings Report
Potential trigger for massive short covering
Q3 & Q4 2025 - Growth continuation & institutional upgrades
2026+ – Global expansion and category dominance
🧠 Final Word: Why This Setup Matters
Wall Street sees a telehealth novelty that is getting commoditized. We see a profitable, data-driven platform business with an emotional moat and enough short interest to be a genuine catalyst to the upside.
The HIMS setup has everything we look for:
✅ Earnings momentum
✅ Fundamental strength
✅ Technical breakout potential
✅ A 25% short float that could ignite on any upside surprise
📋 Trade Summary
🛒 Buy $HIMS ( ▼ 4.26% ) at: $49.44
📈 Options Trade: Sell Nov $44 Put / Buy Nov $60 Call – Net $0.30
🔥 Catalyst: Earnings August 4
⏰ Time Horizon: 3-6 months
🌟 Conviction: High
Stay Liquid, my friends.
- The Resilient Trader
