📈 Hims & Hers Health (HIMS): The Short Squeeze + Earnings Double Catalyst Setup

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🧠 This Week’s Trade: Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

🏷️ Ticker: HIMS
💰 Price at Entry: $49.44
📅 Catalyst Date: Earnings August 4, 2025

Wall Street is piling on with over 25% of HIMS’s float sold short. But they’re missing the bigger picture: a wildly profitable, cash-rich subscription healthcare business that continues to beat earnings expectations.

With the next earnings report due August 4 and a quarter of the float shorted, we believe HIMS could be one of the biggest short squeeze plays of 2025.

🔍 Trade Thesis: Three Bullish Forces Converging

💣 1. Short Squeeze Setup

• Short Interest: ~25% of float (~62M shares)

• Days to Cover: 1.4

• Catalyst: Q2 earnings on August 4

• Risk to Shorts: Low float, strong fundamentals, and prior earnings beats increase the odds of a panic squeeze

This isn’t just a crowded short it’s a scenario where even a small catalyst could spark a move.

💸 2. Consistent Earnings Beats

HIMS doesn’t just meet expectations, it tends to crush them. Meaning they do a great job at managing Wall Street analyst expectations.

• Q1 2025: EPS 0.28 vs. 0.23 (+24%)

• Q4 2024: EPS 0.28 vs. 0.27

• Q3 2024: EPS 0.29 vs. 0.10 (+187%)

• Q2 2024: EPS 0.23 vs. 0.18 (+29%)

Wall Street Expects: EPS $0.22 on $550M revenue
Our View: Another beat is incoming based on strong traffic and subscription momentum

🌐 3. Telehealth Disruption

HIMS is building a monopoly on dignity in healthcare, owning the most awkward but profitable niches:

• Erectile dysfunction

• Hair loss

• Mental health

• Birth control

• Weight management & more

This is a direct-to-consumer healthcare model that avoids insurance, wait times, and stigma and it’s working.

📊 Fundamentals: From Startup to Subscription Juggernaut

💰 TTM Revenue: $1.78B (+86% YoY)

📈 Q1 2025 Revenue: $586M (+111% YoY)

🧬 TTM Net Income: $164.4M

⚖️ Free Cash Flow: $247.9M

🏷️ Cash Position: $322M

📊 Debt: Just $63M

This is no longer a startup story HIMS is a profitable subscription engine.

📈 Technical Setup

💲 Current Price: $49.44

↔️ 52-Week Range: $13.47 – $72.98

🎯 Target Range: $65–$100+

🎢 Momentum: Building into earnings

🎙️ Volume: Elevated on up days, bullish trend intact

🥊 Competitive Edge

vs. Teladoc (TDOC)

• HIMS: +158% past year | Direct-to-consumer

• TDOC: -44% past year | Enterprise-heavy model

vs. Roman (Ro)

• HIMS offers broader care, lower pricing, and more scale

vs. Amazon One Medical

• HIMS owns patient trust in sensitive categories, and that moat is wide

💥 Trade of the Week:

✅ Buy HIMS Stock at $49.44

🎯 Profit Targets:

• Near-Term: $65–75

• 3–6 Months: $80-90

• Long-Term: $100+

• Stop Loss: $42

🛡️ Options Strategy: The Earnings Explosion Play

📆 (For Aggressive Options Trading Accounts Only)

• ✅ SELL November 21st $44 Put for $7.95

• ✅ BUY November 21st $60 Call for $8.25 • Net Debit: $0.30

🎲 Scenarios:

• Max Gain: Unlimited above $60.30

• Breakeven Call: $60.30 ($60 + $0.30 net debit)

• Breakeven Put: $44.30 ($44 + $0.30 net debit)

• Max Risk: Assigned at $44 + $0.30 = $44.30 effective cost

This is a cheap lottery ticket on the ultimate short squeeze setup.

🔥 Catalyst Watch

• August 4 - Q2 Earnings Report

Potential trigger for massive short covering

• Q3 & Q4 2025 - Growth continuation & institutional upgrades

• 2026+ – Global expansion and category dominance

🧠 Final Word: Why This Setup Matters

Wall Street sees a telehealth novelty that is getting commoditized. We see a profitable, data-driven platform business with an emotional moat and enough short interest to be a genuine catalyst to the upside.

The HIMS setup has everything we look for:

✅ Earnings momentum
✅ Fundamental strength
✅ Technical breakout potential
✅ A 25% short float that could ignite on any upside surprise

📋 Trade Summary

🛒 Buy $HIMS ( ▼ 0.37% )  at: $49.44
📈 Options Trade: Sell Nov $44 Put / Buy Nov $60 Call – Net $0.30
🔥 Catalyst: Earnings August 4
⏰ Time Horizon: 3-6 months
🌟 Conviction: High

Stay Liquid, my friends.
- The Resilient Trader