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- 📈 Resilient Trader Trade Idea: You’re Not Supposed to Buy This ETF Right Now...
📈 Resilient Trader Trade Idea: You’re Not Supposed to Buy This ETF Right Now...
Resilient Trader
July 23, 2025
Regular people are starting to trade like institutional traders-and they're making a living doing it. But not everyone is successful with their trades. There is a right way and a wrong way. I'm here to help you come up with vetted trade ideas so you actually make money off your trading.
Resilient Trader is where smart traders come for vetted ideas.
Every week, we cut through the noise and spotlight market opportunities that institutions are circling only with strategies tailored for real retail traders.
Today's setup?
A Southeast Asian giant is gearing to start trading higher, and hardly anyone’s paying attention.
Usually, we recommend single stocks, but this week we are putting our macro hat on. Let’s talk about Indonesia and why now may be your best shot to buy the iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO)
🔍 Why EIDO Is a Buy
The macro story unfolding in Indonesia right now is rare. We’re talking about:
💎 Massive liquidity injection (330 trillion rupiah and counting)
🏷️ Rock-solid banks with 22%+ ROEs trading at 11x earnings
🔥 Fiscal firepower from infrastructure stimulus and export reforms
💲 Monetary easing just kicking off (BI rate now at 5.25% from 6.25%)
Add it up and you get a textbook setup for an emerging market breakout with the ETF still trading near its 52-week lows at $17.56.
💡 What Makes EIDO Special?
EIDO = Indonesia in one ticker. You get exposure to:
77 Indonesian companies
Banking heavyweights like Bank Central Asia (BBCA), Bank Mandiri, and Bank Rakyat (41.44% combined ETF weight) This ETF has a significant exposure to the banks, but for those of you who can buy direct into the Indonesian markets through your brokerage firm, I would recommend buying Bank Mandiri instead of the ETF.
A 4.06% dividend yield while you wait
A play on Indonesia’s full-blown macro pivot under new president Prabowo Subianto
📊 Fundamentals: The Case for a Macro Re-Rate
Indonesia is triggering every growth lever it has:
Catalyst | Detail |
|---|---|
💰 Liquidity Flood | Unwinding of SRBI bond program = +100T rupiah/month into banks |
🏦 Bank Strength | BBCA earns 22.32% ROE. Mandiri just hit IDR 55.8T net profit |
🌐 FX Reforms | Exporters must keep FX reserves in-country = +$50B boost |
🚧 Infrastructure Boom | IDR 47.6 trillion needed 2025–2029 (→ $126B USD market) |
📉 Rate Cuts Begin | Bank Indonesia has cut 100bps so far. More on deck. |
📉 Technicals Say “No” But That’s Exactly Why We’re Interested
Right now, the technicals are ugly, but hey, we’re a fundamental shop anyway:
📡 13 Sell signals, only 3 Buy
🎯 Trading below key moving averages
🎢 Down -17.2% in 2024 and -3.1% YTD 2025
But this is a classic contrarian signal.
When price is down and fundamentals are improving, that’s where smart money steps in. The chart shows a "coiled spring" scenario. We’re close to a bounce.
⚙️ How We’re Playing It
✅ Stock Position (Core Trade)
Buy $EIDO ( ▲ 0.23% ) at $17.56(as of last night’s close)
Entry point near support
Long runway for upside as policies play out
Pays 4.06% dividend yield while you wait
🔧 Options Position (For Leverage)
Buy Jan 16, 2026 $17.50 Call @ $1.40
Gives you 18 months of exposure
Break-even = $18.90
Potential 300-500%+ return if EIDO moves to $22-$25
🎯 Price Targets
Each month:
Timeframe | Target Price | Upside |
|---|---|---|
6 Months | $19.50–$20.50 | 12 Months |
12 Months | $21.00–$23.00 | +20–31% |
18 Months | $24.00+ | +36% |
🧠 Risk Management
Rule | Guidance |
|---|---|
📊 Stock Allocation | Max 2–3% of portfolio |
🛡️ Options Allocation | Max 0.5–1% of portfolio |
❌ Stop Loss | $16.50 on the stock. Options = monitor decay, trim after 100%+ gains |
📅 Monitor | Indonesian earnings, BI rate decisions, FX flows, EIDO volume |
🚀 Why This Trade Works
Asymmetric Setup
Risk: Limited to stop or option premium
Reward: Big upside from fiscal + monetary convergence
Undervalued Banks
ROEs over 22% and still trading at 11x P/E
Policy Momentum
Infrastructure, liquidity, currency, and rate cuts all aligned
Contrarian Entry
Everyone’s bearish. That’s when the best trades set up.
📬 Want More Like This?
This kind of macro + trade strategy combo is what we do every week in the paid version of Resilient Trader.
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Stay Liquid, my friends.
- The Resilient Trader