If you're a high earner, your portfolio could be quietly costing you thousands in avoidable taxes. On August 6, join Range's CFPs and CPAs for a live session on the tax-smart investing moves that matter most in 2026. 

You'll learn how tax-loss harvesting, asset location, direct indexing, and withdrawal sequencing can help grow your after-tax returns — and walk away with an action plan you can run immediately. Range delivers comprehensive wealth management, aligning tax planning, investment management, retirement, and estate planning into one hyper-personalized plan so nothing slips through the cracks. 

Bring your questions; our experts will answer them live. Seats are limited.

RSVP to join for free

^{This webinar is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Range defines "high earners" as households with income over $300k.}

Every week, we cut through the noise and surface opportunities that institutions are already eyeing - but with strategies tailored for retail traders. Today's setup is different from our usual single-stock trade: a macro trade on the most crowded short position in the world, right as two governments started forcing it to unwind.

We’ll cover:

The Japanese yen just hit 40-year lows against the dollar, above 163 yen last week. Years of near-zero Japanese rates made shorting the yen the world's favorite trade, and positioning shows it: large speculators are net short roughly 260,000 yen contracts, the most extreme in over five years.

Then Monday happened. The US and Japan jointly intervened in the currency market, confirmed by both governments, and the dollar fell from above 163 to around 156 yen. Joint intervention with US participation is rare. The last thing you want to be when two governments declare a floor is record short against that floor.

$FXY is the simple way to own this: an ETF that tracks the yen against the dollar. Yen strengthens, FXY rises. No futures account needed.

Behind the scenes:

🌊 Record crowded short: roughly 260,000 net short contracts, a five-plus-year extreme, and none have covered yet. When they are forced to, they all buy yen at once.

🤝 Joint intervention: coordinated US-Japan action confirmed Monday, with more signaled. Solo interventions often fade; joint ones with US participation change the game.

🏦 The BOJ is hiking: held at 1% in July but said plainly it will continue raising rates. The rate gap that fueled the short trade is closing.

💸 Cheapest options in a year: FXY implied volatility is 7.9% against realized volatility of 9.7%, IV rank just 3.4%. The market is selling yen upside for less than the yen actually moves.

🛡️ A hedge that can pay for itself: when US stocks sell off hard, the carry trade unwinds and the yen rallies. This position works exactly when the rest of your portfolio does not.

The honest bear case: history is full of interventions that faded. If the Fed keeps hiking while the BOJ crawls, the rate gap still favors the dollar, and the carry trade re-forms. That is why our stop sits at the 52-week low, and why the option position risks only what you pay for it.

Let's break it down:

💵 The fund: Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust, $434 million in assets, 0.40% expense ratio, tracking the yen since 2007.

📉 The move so far: closed $58.50 Monday, still only 4.5% above the $55.96 52-week low. The jump just took the yen back to May levels; the $63.26 high sits 8% above.

🐌 Know what you own: a currency ETF moves slowly (beta about 0.19). The option turns a slow grind into a big return.

Crowded trades unwind when something forces them, and the force arrived this week: coordinated intervention, a central bank guiding rates higher, talk of more action from both capitals. Friday's positioning data will show whether the record shorts have started to cover. If not, the fuel is still in the tank.

The key point: you do not need the multi-year yen story to win this trade. A simple unwind of the crowd back toward the middle of the 52-week range puts FXY above $61. The structural case, Japanese pension flows and repatriation, is the free call option on top.

✅ Current price: $58.50, up 1.45% Monday on confirmed joint intervention

✅ Above the 50-day moving average near $56.93, which held as support through July

✅ Just reclaimed the 200-day moving average near $58.26 - the line every trend follower watches

✅ 4.5% off the 52-week low of $55.96, with the 52-week high at $63.26 overhead

🎯 Resistance: $61, then the 52-week high at $63.26

🎯 Targets: $61 initial, $63.26 intermediate, higher if the short base is forced out

A core position in the shares, plus a long-dated LEAP call. Note what we are NOT doing this week: selling a wing. Recent issues sold rich options; FXY is the opposite tape. Even 18 months out, its options are priced BELOW what the fund actually moves. When you can buy a year and a half of upside that cheap, you buy it.

🟢 Trade Setup

The slow-and-steady leg: yen exposure with no expiration date, held through the policy cycle.

🛡️ Options Play:

Why not a nearer expiry? Same cost per day of exposure, but FX trends grind. If the yen stalls for a year, a January 2027 call dies at zero while this LEAP still holds roughly $1.80 of value and a full year of life. Time is the whole edge in a currency trade; buy enough of it.

(Quotes 15-min delayed as of the Aug 3 close - verify with live brokerage prices.)

📉 Risk-Reward

How it works: you pay about $310 for the right to buy 100 FXY shares at $60 through January 2028. The short squeeze gets you paid on the way; the policy shift is what the last year is for. If the thesis fails you lose $310, and unlike a short-dated call you can exit mid-2027 with real time value intact.

On the shares, a decisive close below $55.96 (the 52-week low) says the intervention failed: exit. That risks about $2.50 against $2.50 to $4.75 of target upside. On the LEAP, the $310 premium IS the stop; size contracts to the 1-2% rule. Judge this one in quarters, not days.

Keep your eyes on:

The best trades are often the least comfortable. Buying the yen at a 40-year low feels like catching a falling knife. That is exactly why the opportunity exists.

$FXY gives you the whole trade in one ticker: two governments defending a floor, a central bank raising rates, a record crowd on the wrong side, and the cheapest option premium of the year to play it with.

The shares grind. The calls give the squeeze teeth. And this is a position that gets stronger when markets get scared.

✅ Buy $FXY at $58.50 or better
💸 Buy the Jan 2028 $60 LEAP call - $3.10 limit ($310 per contract)

We'll be watching this one closely.

Want more trade ideas like this - plus weekly options plays and breakdowns?

👉 Join the Paid Resilient Trader Newsletter

For more in-depth trading strategies and market insights, upgrade to the paid version of our newsletter.

Our paid newsletter gives you:

Stay Liquid, my friends
- The Resilient Trader