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Every week, we cut through the noise to highlight real trade opportunities - ideas already on institutional radar, but tailored for retail accounts.

This week’s setup?

A quietly rebounding optical retailer with pricing power returning, technical momentum building, and a chart that’s screaming “buy.” Shoutout to my wife for sparking the idea behind this trade.(reply to this email if you want to hear the story)

Let’s zoom in.

🔍 Trade Thesis: EYE - A Turnaround You Can See Coming

National Vision Holdings (EYE) is one of the largest optical retailers in the U.S., operating brands like America’s Best and Eyeglass World. The stock got crushed in 2022-2023, but the business is now turning a corner - and fast.

Here’s what’s changed:

📈 Comp Sales Strength: Two straight quarters of solid comparable store sales growth

💰 Pricing Power Returning: Inflationary pressures fading, allowing margin expansion

🩺 Defensive Model: Vision care has medical necessity tailwinds - people need glasses regardless of economic cycles

🛍️ Fragmented Market: Opportunity to capture share in a consolidating retail segment

🧠 Under the Radar: Still ignored by most - creating an asymmetric setup

📊 Fundamentals Are Firming Up

EYE is showing textbook turnaround signs under the surface:

💵 Q1 2025 Revenue: $255.5M - with healthy same-store growth

✅ Earnings Surprise: Adj. EPS of $0.34 vs $0.29 estimate

📦 Momentum from Q4 2024: +3.9% revenue YoY, +2.6% comp sales

👓 Multi-Brand Reach: Scale and efficiency from managing multiple value-driven retail chains

🧮 Execution Improving: Operational issues that plagued them in 2022–23 are getting cleaned up

⚖️ Valuation Has Room to Expand

Even after a rally, this stock is still cheap for a retailer with improving metrics.

💵 Current Price: $18.55 (at time of publishing)

🔁 3-Year Range: $9.68 (Sep 2024) to $42.79 (Jan 2023)

🎯 Average Analyst Target: $25.00 - and likely going higher

📈 Upside Potential: Could double within 12–18 months if this reversal continues

📈 Technical Setup: Breakout in Progress

The chart is confirming what the fundamentals are saying:

✅ +64.7% in the Past Month

✅ Trading Above both 20-week and 50-week SMAs

💥 Golden Cross just triggered - 20-week SMA > 50-week SMA

📊 Volume Surge: 3-month avg. volume up 68.7%

🔓 Key Resistance: $19.28 - next stop after a breakout could be $25+

💥 Trade of the Week

Here’s how to play it:

1️⃣ Stock Purchase

• 📍 Buy EYE at current price of $18.55

• Target upside: $32+

• Consider stop-loss near $17.12

2️⃣ Options Strategy (Aggressive Accounts Only)

• Sell the Jan 16, 2026 $17.50 Put @ $2.40

• Buy the Jan 16, 2026 $17.50 Call @ $2.40

🚀 Catalysts to Watch

1. More comp sales beats → validates turnaround

2. Margin expansion from regained pricing control

3. Analyst upgrades → currently underweight on coverage

4. Technical breakout → closes above $23.81 = breakout confirmation

5. Consolidation tailwinds in vision retail

🧠 Final Thoughts

This isn’t a hype trade. It’s a turnaround trade.

National Vision is coming out of the fog with comp sales strength, improved earnings, and a high-probability chart setup. Retail headwinds are easing, pricing power is returning, and volume is confirming the move.

Don’t be surprised if this name goes from forgotten to favored.

💸 Action Plan:

• Buy $EYE ( ▲ 2.86% ) stock near $18.55

• For aggressive traders: initiate a long call + short put strategy (Jan 2026 $17.50 strike, net debit $0.00)

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- The Resilient Trader