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- 📈 Resilient Trader Trade Idea: The Value Play on Grocery Outlet Holdings (GO)
📈 Resilient Trader Trade Idea: The Value Play on Grocery Outlet Holdings (GO)
Resilient Trader
August 21, 2025
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Every week, we cut through the noise and surface opportunities that institutions are already eyeing, with strategies tailored for retail traders.
Today’s setup? A discount grocery chain with an expanding footprint and improving margins that’s flying under Wall Street’s radar.
🔍 Trade Thesis: GO Is Building a Discount Empire While Wall Street Sleeps
Grocery Outlet (GO) has been quietly transforming its business, but the stock still trades like Wall Street hasn’t noticed. After earnings it surged more than 30%, yet at $18.43 we see plenty of room to run, especially with its old trading range sitting in the low 30s
Behind the scenes:
🚀 Store growth accelerating: 11 new stores in Q2, targeting 33–35 for 2025
💰 Margins improving: Gross margin at 30.6%
📈 Raised guidance: EPS boosted to $0.75–0.80, beating estimates
📊 The Fundamentals Are Strengthening
💰 Revenue: $1.18B in Q2, +4.5% year-over-year
🔖 Comparable Sales: +1.1% in Q2, guided at 1–2% for 2025
🏆 Store Count: 552 locations, across 16 states
🌍 Traffic Growth: +1.5% transactions, proving customer demand
🛠️ Operating Margin: Improving with restructuring nearly complete
📐 Valuation Is Compelling
⚖️ P/S Ratio: 0.40x, well below peers
🏷️ Forward P/E: 26.04x with earnings growth runway
📊 EV/EBITDA: 21.26x, with room for multiple expansion
🧭 Technicals Point to a Bullish Setup
✅ Higher lows on decelerating volume
✅ Breakout to cycle highs post-earnings
✅ Support at $17.50, resistance at $21.25
✅ Current price: $18.43
🎯 Targets: $21.25 (initial), $25.00 (intermediate) $31.00 (long term)
💥 Trade of the Week
🛒Stock Buy
Buy $GO ( ▲ 3.16% ) at $18.43
🛡️ Options Play
🟢 Buy April 17th 2026 $17.50 Call for $2.15
Max Risk: $215 per contract
Breakeven: $19.65
Upside: Unlimited as shares climb
🚀 Catalysts to Watch
Q3 earnings (Nov 2025) – margin strength
New store announcements
Analyst upgrades – coverage is light but we should see more initiations at Buy
Technical breakout above $21.25
🛑 Risk Management Tip
Place a stop-loss at $16.50 to control risk.
🧠 Final Thoughts
GO is a value play in the defensive consumer staples space. With accelerating store growth, rising margins, and improved guidance, this discount retailer offers both growth and safety at current levels.
✅ Buy GO at $18.43
💸 Buy the April 17th 2026 $17.50 Call for $2.15
We’ll be tracking this closely.
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- The Resilient Trader