☕ Resilient Trader Trade Idea: The Great Starbucks Turnaround Is Brewing

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Resilient Trader is where smart traders come for vetted ideas.

Every week, we cut through the noise and surface opportunities that institutions are already eyeing - but with strategies tailored for retail traders. Today’s setup? A coffee giant that’s been beaten down, but is quietly brewing one of the most impressive turnarounds on the street.

We’ll cover:

• Why Starbucks $SBUX ( ▲ 0.61% ) is a Buy at current levels

• How to play the upside with a low-cost, high-reward options strategy

🔍 Trade Thesis: The Turnaround Is Just Getting Started

Starbucks (SBUX) has had a rough couple of years, with the stock getting hammered and sentiment turning sour. But after more than a year under CEO Brian Niccol’s leadership, the ship is turning. The heaviest lifting is done, and SBUX is on a clear path to reaccelerating growth in 2026-2027.

Behind the scenes:

✅ Turnaround Taking Hold: After seven straight quarters of declines, global comparable sales finally turned positive in Q4 2025. The U.S. market, its most important, even saw positive momentum in September.

☕ Operational Excellence: Labor has been put back into stores, leading to record-low turnover and higher partner engagement. The result? Faster service, happier customers, and a return to the welcoming “third place” vibe.

🥓 Revolutionizing Food: The company is finally getting serious about food. With a consistent drumbeat of innovation planned, including the much-anticipated new bacon wrap, food is set to become a major growth driver.

🛠️ Heavy Lifting is Over: The store portfolio has been reassessed (closing 600+ underperforming stores), corporate complexity has been slashed, and the most painful restructuring charges are now in the rearview mirror.

The market is still skeptical, but the data shows the “Back to Starbucks” strategy is working. We think this is the perfect time to get in before the crowd catches on.

📊 The Fundamentals Are Turning the Corner

Let’s break it down:

📈 Revenue Growth: After a modest 3% growth in FY2025, analysts see revenue accelerating to +7% in FY2027, hitting over $41 billion.

💰 EPS Reacceleration: Analysts project EPS will jump from $2.13 in FY2025 to $3.01 in FY2027 – a massive +26.5% growth clip.

☕ Comps Are Back: Q4 2025 marked the first positive global comp (+1%) in seven quarters. The engine is starting to rev again.

📦 Margins Recovering: While GAAP margins were hit by one-time restructuring costs, the underlying non-GAAP operating margin is stabilizing. With the heavy costs behind them, we expect margins to expand as sales growth returns.

📐 Valuation Is Attractive

SBUX is priced for a comeback:

⚖️ Forward P/E: Trading at just 27.9x FY2027 earnings. For a premium global brand with 26%+ EPS growth on the horizon, that’s cheap compared to its historical average and peers.

🎯 Analyst Consensus: Wall Street is catching on. The average price target is $94.62, implying +12.8% upside, with some targets as high as $115 (+37% upside).

🧭 Technicals: Building a Base

✅ Current Price: $84.57

✅ Support: Strong support in the $75-$80 range.

✅ Momentum: The stock is building a solid base after a long downtrend, poised for a breakout as the turnaround story gets wider recognition.

🎯 Targets: Our analysis suggests a short term fair value between $90-$100 as the turnaround proves out over the next 12-18 months.

💥 Trade of the Week: Bullish Combo for Maximum Upside

We’re using a smart options structure to get bullish exposure with a very low entry cost and a massive potential payout.

🟢 Trade Setup

• Buy SBUX Stock at $84.57

🛡️ Options Play: The “Turnaround Triple”

• Buy the Sept 18th, 2026 Call Spread and Sell a Put:

  • Buy Sept 18th, 2026 $90 Call: for $7.65

  • Sell Sept 18th, 2026 $115 Call: for $1.35

  • Sell Sept 18th, 2026 $75 Put: for $4.65

  • Total Net Debit: $1.65

This structure gives you huge upside potential for a fraction of the cost of buying the stock outright.

📈 Risk-Reward:

• Max Risk: Assignment at $75 if the stock is below that at expiration. Your effective buy price would be $76.65 ($75 strike + $1.65 debit), a 9.4% discount from today’s price.

• Max Reward: $23.35 per share (a 1,415% return on your $1.65 investment!)

• Upper Breakeven: $91.65

• Lower Breakeven: $76.65

• Risk-Reward Ratio: A stunning 14.15-to-1

🛑 Risk Management Tip

This trade’s main risk is the short put. Only enter this trade if you are comfortable owning SBUX at an effective price of $76.65. This is a level we find very attractive for a long-term hold, making this a win-win setup.

🚀 Catalysts on the Horizon

Keep your eyes on:

1. Earnings Reports (2026): Continued positive comp growth and margin expansion will prove the thesis.

2. New Product Launches: Successful food and beverage innovation will drive traffic and ticket.

3. Analyst Upgrades: As the numbers improve, expect a wave of upgrades and price target hikes.

4. Investor Days: Positive commentary from management on the 2026/2027 outlook.

🧠 Final Thoughts

SBUX is a world-class brand that lost its way but is now firmly on the comeback trail. The market is sleeping on the progress, creating a perfect entry point for savvy traders.

The combination of operational improvements, accelerating growth, and a very attractive valuation makes this a high-conviction buy. The options strategy supercharges the return potential while defining your risk.

✅ Buy SBUX at $84.57
💸 Execute the September 2026 $90/$115 Call Spread and sell the $75 Put for a net debit of $1.65

We'll be watching this one closely.

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