🚀 Resilient Trader Trade Idea: The Bullish Case for Lyft (LYFT)

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Every week, we cut through the noise and surface opportunities that institutions are already eyeing, but with strategies tailored for retail traders.

Today’s setup?

A rideshare stock hitting a major inflection point while being massively under owned by the smart money.

🔍 Trade Thesis: LYFT Is Hitting the Gas While Hedge Funds Are Still at a Red Light

Lyft (LYFT) has been quietly executing a massive turnaround, and we think the stock is just getting started. While the market has been focused on its larger competitor, Lyft has achieved its first-ever year of GAAP profitability and is generating record cash flow. The best part? The hedge fund community is largely ignoring it, creating a rare opportunity for retail investors to get in before the herd.

Behind the scenes:

✅ Profitability Inflection: First-ever annual GAAP profitability in 2024

💰 Record Cash Flow: $766M in free cash flow

📉 Massively Under owned: Hedge funds have minimal exposure

📈 Strong Positioning: Well-placed for consumer demand for convenience

📊 The Fundamentals Are Accelerating

💰 Revenue: $6.11B (TTM) with strong growth trajectory

📈 Rides & Drivers: Record highs in recent quarters

📦 Profitability: First full year of GAAP profitability achieved in 2024

🛠️ Margin Expansion: EBITDA and FCF margins at all-time highs

🧮 EPS Growth: Projected +122.7% next year ($0.22 → $0.49)

📐 Valuation Is Incredibly Attractive

⚖️ P/S Ratio: 1.2x vs. Uber’s 4.2x (70% discount!)

🏷️ PEG Ratio: 0.2 vs. Uber’s 8.1

📈 Gross Margin: 41.1% vs. Uber’s 39.8%

🧭 Technicals Agree: The Chart Is Breaking Out

✅ Strong Uptrend: Above 50, 100, and 200-day MAs

✅ Breakout Confirmed: Cleared $17–18 resistance

✅ Momentum Building: Buy signals stacking up

💥 Trade of the Week: Defined-Risk Bull Call Spread

We’re combining a stock buy with a defined-risk options trade for leveraged upside.

🟢 Stock Buy

• Buy $LYFT ( ▲ 0.22% )  at $18.96

🛡️ Options Play

• Buy Mar 20th $22 Call @ $2.22

• Sell Mar 20th $30 Call @ $0.74

• Net Debit: $1.48

📈 Risk-Reward

• Max Risk: $1.48

• Max Reward: $6.52

• Breakeven: $23.48

• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:4.4

🚀 Catalysts on the Horizon

1. Q3 2025 earnings – margin expansion and profitability growth

2. Hedge fund inflows as turnaround gets noticed

3. Analyst upgrades beyond Roth Capital’s “Buy” rating

4. Technical breakout above $20 = momentum trigger

🛑 Risk Management Tip

Set a stop-loss at $16.50 to cap downside while leaving room for upside follow-through.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Lyft is a textbook turnaround story that the market hasn’t priced in yet. From profitability inflection to its deep valuation discount and hedge fund under ownership, LYFT has the ingredients for a profitable long trade.

✅ Buy LYFT at $18.96
💸 Buy the Mar 20th $22/$30 Call Spread for $1.48

We’ll be watching this one closely.

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- The Resilient Trader

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